Some more things I can report after digging into the VCR more:
The idler is a gear, not a tire, so issues there.
There are two belts aside from the loading belt, and both are in impeccable shape - I almost wonder if they're replacements.
Something interesting I've found is that if I put a little extra pressure on the spring-loaded tension arm on the supply side, the problem seems to resolve (there is no tension arm on the take-up side). In addition, I can confirm that the problem is definitely worse on shorter tapes. These two things make me wonder if it actually could be a tension issue - shorter tapes would present less resistance from the take-up reel, after all. Maybe something needs to be done to increase the spring tension on that tension arm? Or to increase the strength of the felt brake on the supply reel?
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