Reporting back on the cause. It was the mixer tube in the tuner circuit. Another symptom I wasn't really noticing was that when turning on the TV I'd have raster with no picture for about 15 seconds and then it would fade in. Once I swapped in a new mixer tube, start up characteristics went back to what they used to be: raster with an unsynchronized picture (not sure if that's normal or another tube that's weak, but once warmed up I have no sync problems). So nice to be able to enjoy my TV again!
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