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CRT phosphors decay within one scan field (except for some low level persistence), so the two cases should appear the same brightness and color to the eye.
The two cases definitely will be different for a well focussed camera shot, however. The average brightness is the same, but the line-paired (progressive) case means the photo has to try making the same average brightness from a combination of overexposed scan lines and black spaces. The visual system has separate processing for average brightness and detail and doesn't saturate on the progressive scan lines the way a camera does.
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