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Q202 is the one, you could try checking it, but I doubt its the problem. under the chassis you should see diode that goes to the base of that, then a couple resistors 33k then a couple 100k (5%). from there it goes to the flyback thru a cap.
I would check the transistor, diode,and resistors. Pretty sure you will need to take them out of the circuit to check, which will be a PITA and of course they may be ok. With out a scope you are handicapped into doing work to check things rather than just looking at the signal.
Again this is only a guess, so don't expect it to fix things its just an educated guess.
If I were you I would start looking into buying a scope, I know there will be some that say its a waste of money, true you can fix a lot of stuff without one, but when you run into tough dogs, it will save time, "don't be a dope, use that scope"
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